“The referendum result and forthcoming post-Article 50 negotiations have generated uncertainty for firms that will lead to some investment being postponed or cancelled,” it says in a startling assessment.
The watchdog assumes that after Brexit, May will “adopt a tighter migration regime than that currently in place, but not sufficiently tight to reduce net inward migration to the desired ‘tens of thousands’.”
It has assumed that migration will fall by 80,000 a year.
“Exiting the EU will be associated with lower net migration than would otherwise have been the case. In addition, pull factors attracting migrants to the UK may be less powerful than previously.”
It warns that if Britain had voted to Remain in the EU, migration would have surged, creating more income for the economy from tax receipts.
The OBR even said that its figures could be even worse if there is a “bumpy Brexit” under which “firms shed jobs more aggressively or that consumers increase precautionary saving, both of which are downside risks”.
Article source: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/11/23/brexit-bill-migrants-16bn-autumn-statement-2016-obr_n_13174994.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&ir=UK+Politics