Have We Seen Peak SNP?

The economics of independence still don’t add up for the SNP. Oil is central to the Scottish economy. Though China is importing oil at unprecedented level, $32.85million tons this month, and Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to agree a freeze in output at the Energy Forum in Algeria later this month. Analysts still expect this not to undercut the oversupply of oil in the market. Peter Lee an Oil and Gas analyst from BMI research stated, “even if they would agree on a production freeze, it basically means that everyone would be producing at their peak rates…It doesn’t do much in terms of the oversupply.” This is bad news for Scotland where it is estimated if Scotland was independent, oil would account for 10%-20% of Scotland tax revenue, and if you take away the revenue produced by oil for the Scottish economy then GDP per person goes down from £26,424 to £20,571 a drop of nearly £4,000. The downturn in oil is already taking a toll on Scottish jobs with the trade body Oil and Gas UK reporting a loss of 65,000 jobs, mainly effecting Scottish heartlands such as Aberdeen.

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