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How quickly is COVID-19 spreading in your region?

Some regions in England are doing better than others in combating the growth of COVID-19, according to new government figures.

The latest R number across the UK remains the same as last week at 0.7-0.9, but the statistics vary in different regions, says the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which channels advise to ministers.

The R – or reproduction – number is a measure of how fast coronavirus is spreading.

If R is below 1 then the virus isn’t being spread to enough people to sustain an outbreak, so it gradually peters out. The closer it is to zero, the faster cases drop.

The latest R number in the UK means less than one person is contracting COVID-19 from an infected person, something the government has been keen to maintain to keep infections down.

The rate in which the virus has grown or fallen across the UK in the past week ranges from -6% to 0% a day, as of 3 July – meaning it is falling but not as fast in some regions.

Due to regional spikes in the past week, the latest growth rate has a larger range than last week when it was -4% to -2%.

The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day and, as the number of infections decreases, is a more reliable way of keeping track of the virus.

If the growth rate is greater than zero, and therefore positive, then the disease will grow, and if the growth rate is less than zero, then the disease will shrink.

Sky News’ science correspondent Thomas Moore explained: “The UK’s R number is unchanged at between 0.7 to 0.9, showing the epidemic continues to slowly shrink, according to the latest assessment by the government’s scientific advisory committee.

“But SAGE estimates slightly higher values in some areas of the country. In London R is thought to be between 0.8 to 1.1. The Midlands and North East are also thought to have higher transmission rates, between 0.8 and 1.0.

“As numbers of cases fall estimates of the R number become less precise.

“The numbers will be a concern as pubs, restaurants and hairdressers re-open on Saturday.”

What is the UK's 'COVID alert level' and what does it mean?

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SAGE said it had observed increases and decreases in some of the estimates for R numbers and growth rates. It only looks at English regions as Wales, Scotland and North Ireland’s devolved governments monitor their R numbers and growth rates.

“These fluctuations are not considered to be significant due to the small size of the changes,” the group said in a statement.

“The most likely explanation for these changes is the uncertainty created when estimating these values based on increasingly smaller numbers of cases.”

It said the fewer cases there are, the more difficult it is to accurately estimate the R number and growth rates and just because an area has a positive number, it does not mean the epidemic is definitely increasing, just that it cannot be ruled out.



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The latest regional R value and current growth rates are:

England: R = 0.8-0.9 Growth = -5% to -2%

East of England: R = 0.7-0.9 Growth = -5% to 0%

London: R = 0.8-1.1 Growth = -4% to +2%

Midlands: R = 0.8-1.0 Growth = -4% to 0%

North East and Yorkshire: R = 0.8-1.0 Growth = -5% to 0%

North West: R = 0.7-0.9 Growth = -4% to 0%

South East: R = 0.7-1.0 Growth = -5% to 0%

South West: R = 0.7-1.0 Growth = -7% to +2%

A further 137 people have died after testing positive for COVID-19 in the UK, the Department of Health and Social Care said.

It means there have been a total of 44,131 coronavirus-related fatalities in hospitals, care homes and the wider community.

The government figures do not include all deaths involving COVID-19 across the UK, which are thought to have passed 55,000.

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Article source: http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-covid-19-infection-rates-in-your-region-12020448

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