The Waugh Zone Tuesday January 8, 2019
If Theresa May’s Brexit deal is defeated in the Commons next week, will she tell the EU ‘er, we need more time please’? Whitehall chatter about extending Article 50, the two-year legal timetable for our departure, has certainly become more intense in recent days. And yesterday digital minister Margot James became the first member of the government to publicly admit the possibility. She told BBC’s Politics Live that if MPs can’t agree on the PM’s deal then ‘we might have to extend Article 50’.
James swiftly added the caveat that she felt it was ‘unlikely’ Parliament would ‘stare down the barrel of that particular gun’, but many colleagues think her candour should be commended. Scottish Secretary David Mundell made a similar point privately in Cabinet before Christmas, and the threat of delaying Exit Day actually puts flesh on the bones of May’s own warning that it’s her deal or the risk of no Brexit at all.
What was very notable yesterday was that No.10 didn’t actually contradict James. Instead, it just said it was not the government’s ‘intention’ to seek an extension of Article 50. And on the Today programme, Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay struggled to deny a Telegraph report that EU officials had received ‘feelers’ from British counterparts on the subject. All Barclay would say was that an extension was not a unilateral decision and would run up against the practical problems of Euro Parliament elections in May. Neither was a denial. Similarly, in the Commons yesterday he repeatedly refused to rule out extension, sidestepping a request from backbencher Julian Lewis to pledge that under ‘no circumstances’ would Brexit be delayed.
May’s big play to swing the DUP and Tory waverers behind her deal is to resurrect the idea of getting the EU to agree to start trade talks in 2021, effectively putting a time limit on the dreaded ‘backstop’. While an exchange of letters or new language could help, many MPs won’t be so easily bought off by vague promises. The Telegraph’s Peter Foster cites EU sources saying it’s difficult to agree a firm date when the UK hasn’t a firm idea of what trade deal it wants. Still, leaving No.10’s drinks last night, the DUP’s Nigel Dodds was still in ‘wait and see’ mode. And Tory backbench rebel James Gray joked he could only change his mind if May offered him ‘some really good quality champagne’ and proper nibbles. He told Newsnight: “I’m going to make up my mind entirely based on the quality of the wine and canapes that are served. If we get bog-standard No.10 nasty red, warm white, and a sausage on a stick, no chance.” He didn’t change his mind.
Another No.10 drinks attendee, Richard Harrington. became the latest minister to threaten he would resign rather than agree a no-deal Brexit, adding ‘my view is not an uncommon one’. Today, Yvette Cooper and Nicky Morgan’s amendment to the finance bill will aim to make no-deal harder too. The Treasury sounds relaxed about the amendment, while Brexiteers say it would have little practical effect. More significant, as the Guardian first revealed, is that Labour’s frontbench is backing it. Government whips may be sanguine now, but they won’t be if such alliances become habit-forming. Cross-party rebellions rely on trust, and anything that builds such trust is bad news for No.10.