Will There Really Be A Snap General Election In 2019?

But the UK could be heading to the polls even if the rebels’ no-deal legislation fails, as opposition MPs could still call a vote of no-confidence in the government. 

In a scenario in which Johnson and his team lose, they would have 14 days to convince MPs to back the government in a second confidence vote. (An alternative government formed during this time could also do the same thing.) If the PM failed to do so, a general election would be called. 

(Maybe it’s time to check if you’re registered to vote…) 

How Would Boris Johnson Call A Snap Election? 

Under the current rules, general elections are supposed to be held every five years, meaning the next vote wouldn’t be scheduled until 5 May 2022. 

So, in order to call a snap vote, the government would need to table a motion for an early election in parliament . At least two thirds of the Commons – 434 MPs – would then have to give the motion their backing in order to trigger an election. This is the most obvious route – but it’s not the only option available to the PM. 

The prime minister could also table a short bill which basically overrides the current laws around elections, allowing him to call an election on a specific date. For this to succeed, he would only need 51% of MPs at the vote to back it. However, it would also need to pass through the House of Lords and would be open to amendment. 

Thirdly, if Johnson was *absolutely* determined to hold an election, the government could even call a vote of no confidence in itself. Like a normal no-confidence vote, opposition parties would have 14 days to try and put together an alternative government before a public vote was called. 

Does Labour Want An Election? 

In a word – yes. In a speech on Monday, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the UK “needs” a general election – though he admitted that his first priority is to block a no-deal Brexit. 

“When a government finds itself without a majority the solution is not to undermine democracy,” he told supporters at an event in Salford. 

“The solution is to let the people decide and call a general election.

“It is the people not an unelected prime minister who should determine our country’s future.”

Shadow attorney general Shami Chakrabarti confirmed the position on BBC Breakfast on Tuesday, saying Labour wanted an election ‘at the appropriate moment’ but Corbyn was focused on stopping no-deal first.

The stance comes despite former Labour PM Tony Blair saying a general election could be an “elephant trap” for the party, arguing that some voters “may fear a Corbyn premiership more” than a no-deal Brexit.

What Do The Polls Say? 

According to YouGov polling over the weekend, a general election would see the Conservative Party take 34% of the vote, leaving them 12 points clear of Labour, would would receive 22% of votes. 

However, that is not necessarily good news for the Tories – it would be one of the worst election results for the party since WW2. 

Meanwhile, according to the poll, the Lib Dems would come in third with 17% of the vote, four points ahead of the Brexit Party.

But if we’ve learned anything from the past few years, it’s that polls can be very, very wrong. It looks like there’s an election coming, and no one can really be sure of where on earth that would be leave British politics.