Is Ukraine cyberattack a precursor to Russian invasion?

The strike came amid “ongoing reports of a looming Russian further invasion of Ukraine”, said The Kyiv Independent. The Kremlin has “massed over 140,000 troops around Ukraine and in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine”, prompting more than “20 embassies” to tell “their citizens to immediately leave the country”, the English-languages news site reported.

New front line

Ukraine has long struggled to fend off cyberattacks suspected of being backed by the Russian state. The BBC reported in January that “about 70 government websites” had been hit in “the largest such attack on Ukraine in four years”.

Before the sites went offline, a message flashed up warning Ukrainians to “prepare for the worst” and claiming that “all your personal data has been uploaded onto the public internet”.

“This is for your past, your present and your future,” the message said.

The EU subsequently pledged to “mobilise resources to help Ukraine deal with the cyberattack on its government websites”, Radio Free Europe (RFE) reported.

According to Politico, Russia has repeatedly used digital technology to “disrupt communications and wage psychological warfare, like sending threatening text messages to soldiers”. These texts have reportedly included messages saying “soldier go home”, “soldier kill your commanding officer” and “surrender, we will defeat you anyway, this is our land and you are Ukrainian fascists”.

Some experts believe that “if the Kremlin does de-escalate militarily, similar deniable attacks could follow”, The Guardian reported. Danny Lopez, a former diplomat who runs cybersecurity firm Glasswall, told the paper that “cyberattacks could now play an important role, to keep the pot warm on the stove but not spilling over into actual conflict”.

Ciaran Martin, former chief of the UK National Cyber Security Centre cyber agency, said that “if Russia escalates against Ukraine, there’s the risk of another NotPetya-style accident” – a reference to a June 2017 ransomware strike on around 2,000 people and organisations worldwide.

“After all, NotPetya, perhaps the most economically damaging cyberattack of all time, was the accidental fallout against the West of the Russians hacking Ukraine,” Martin continued.

Other experts and officials fear that cyberattacks may be a precursor to a military invasion. 

White House cybersecurity adviser Anne Neuberger warned “earlier this month that Russia could use cyberattacks as part of its efforts to destabilise and further invade Ukraine”, RFE reported. 

Russia is also “suspected of phoning hundreds of false bomb threats to Ukrainian schools in an attempt to spark panic”, said The Telegraph. And with Russia troops amassed at the country’s borders, the “efforts to destabilise” the country “run parallel” with military threats in the Kremlin’s playbook for a potential invasion.

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Article source: https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/russia/955795/was-cyberattack-ukraine-precursor-russia-invasion