The surprise Tigray truce

Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region, is home to seven million people out of Ethiopia’s 115 million population, and has often been a focal point for disputes. Tigrayans are the nation’s fourth largest ethnic group (the two largest, the Oromo and the Amhara, make up more than 60%). They have a strong local Orthodox Christian identity, and a strong sense of grievance against central government.

How have these tensions influenced events?

In 1974, Ethiopia’s last emperor, Haile Selassie, was deposed by a socialist junta. During the long period of military rule and civil war that followed, Tigray suffered terribly: it was the epicentre of the great famine of 1984. Over time, the separatist TPLF became the most powerful rebel group in the country, forming an alliance that in 1991 eventually toppled the communist dictatorship.

In the years after, Ethiopian politics were dominated by TPLF politicians such as Meles Zenawi, its prime minister from 1995 to 2012. Meles led Ethiopia towards prosperity and stability, but he was also repressive and perceived as favouring Tigrayans. This caused great resentment from Ethiopia’s 80 other ethnic groups.

The TPLF’s coalition was eventually forced out in 2018 by a wave of mass protests led by the current PM, Abiy, whose power base is in his own Oromo ethnic group. He formed the “pan-Ethiopian” Prosperity Party, and removed Tigrayans from key positions.

Why did this lead to the current conflict?

The TPLF, which remained in power in Tigray, saw Abiy’s centralising “pan-Ethiopian” politics as a threat to the country’s federal system and its delicate ethnic balance. Abiy, in turn, accused the Tigrayans of brazenly defying the authority of the central government – notably by holding elections in September 2020 despite a national postponement due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Things came to a head two months later, in early November 2020, when the TPLF’s militia launched an assault on an Ethiopian army base in Tigray, with the goal of seizing weapons. Hours later, Abiy launched a major military offensive into Tigray, and declared a six-month state of emergency in the region.

Three years after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, forces under Abiy’s control were waging a brutal war against his own people. The US has accused his government of ethnic cleansing in Tigray and the patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church has said the government was carrying out a genocide.

Abiy won last year’s delayed elections with an overwhelming majority, securing 410 out of the total 436 seats and a further five years in office. Votes were not cast in Tigray. The win would “do little to improve Abiy’s reputation in the eyes of the international community”, said BBC Africa correspondent Vivienne Nunis. 

How has the conflict played out?

“Despite the scale of the crisis, comprehensive reporting on the conflict” was made “nearly impossible” due to a media blackout, said Deutsche Welle in January. But it seems that both sides overestimated their own strength – and that has resulted in a gruesome and protracted conflict.

Article source: https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/953207/tigray-ethiopia-civil-war-explained