Why Britain Is Stumbling Towards A No-Deal Brexit

Not even Leave campaigners in the 2016 EU referendum suggested it could come to this – but a no-deal Brexit is now a real possibility.

There were promises of taking back control of immigration, laws and money while getting a free trade deal “very rapidly indeed”, according to Boris Johnson himself.

His deputy, Dominic Raab, even described the idea that Britain “would apocalyptically off the cliff edge” as “silly”.

But with the prime minister now promising to leave the EU in 84 days “do or die” and Brussels refusing to budge in negotiations, it is now increasingly becoming the central assumption of not just the government, but the nation. 

So how did we get here?

Experts paint a picture of a series of irreversible decisions and political strategies – from triggering Article 50, failing to unite around a Brexit deal, and an inability to explain to the public the dangers of no deal.

As Johnson enjoys a bounce in the polls, “there’s a bit of a sense that finally people think we’re going to sort this thing out”, Anand Menon, director of the UK In A Changing Europe think-tank, says.

“The nuances haven’t got through, there’s Brexit and not-Brexit in the country at large.

“And what you see is a degree of polarisation now with Leavers wanting no deal, Remainers wanting revocation, but with the people who aren’t engaged it’s the same old debate.”

Theresa May’s early days

Theresa May took office after the referendum and soon made the Vote Leave promises real by pledging to leave the single market and customs union, while maintaining “frictionless” borders and controlling immigration.

Brexiteers until recently still referred misty-eyed to her Lancaster House Brexit strategy speech of January 2017.

But it stored up problems for later when it became clear that the infamous red lines were undeliverable.

“Lancaster House promised the impossible – it was hard Brexit with no economic consequences, what’s not to like?” says Menon.

At the same time, May was insisting that “Brexit means Brexit” and that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.