Is Moldova next on Russia’s target list?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appears to have indicated that Russian forces are planning to invade Moldova. 

At a meeting of the country’s security council yesterday, “Putin’s war-mongering sidekick” addressed officials while standing in front of a map which appeared to show “a planned operation from southern Ukraine into its tiny neighbour”, said the Daily Mail.  

The map detailed Russia’s lines of attack into Ukraine, “some of which have materialised in the first few days of the invasion”, said The Telegraph. It also showed “several attacks that have yet to come to pass”, one of which appeared to point from the city of Odessa into Moldova, “suggesting Russia plans to march troops into Ukraine’s neighbour”. 

“The Kremlin is known for its secrecy around its foreign operations”, making Lukashenko’s presentation “the first insight into Mr Putin’s plan”, the newspaper continued.

‘Domino effect’

Russia’s invasion “has prompted heightened concerns in Moldova”, said Dorina Baltag, a postdoctoral researcher writing on the London School of Economics’s European Politics and Policy blog. 

Some of these worries relate to the humanitarian situation and Ukrainian refugees, “but also due to Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region” between the Dniester river and the Ukrainian border, she continued. 

Transnistria “first garnered attention” in 1992, said Al Jazeera. A short civil war between Moldovan loyalists and Transnistrian separatists followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, and resulted in the pro-Russian territory declaring independence from Moldova. 

The region is also known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, and is home to around 450,000 people. It is not officially recognised by the international community, including Russia, and remains “in a tense stand-off” with the rest of Moldova, said the BBC. 

Moldova’s Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu told Foreign Policy that although “we’re not seeing any unusual activity” in the region at the moment, “we are worried that could change”. 

The ongoing presence of Russian troops in Transnistria “has been a stumbling block in peace talks”, said the BBC. The troops are guarding a Soviet-era arsenal, including 22,000 tonnes of ammunition at a decommissioned arms depot in the village of Cobasna. 

Moldova has repeatedly called for these arms to be evacuated, but “Moscow has been slow on its promises to take action on the matter”, said Al Jazeera. 

The news followed a warning from Ukraine that Russian forces could be preparing false flag provocations in the region. 

The Ukrainian crisis is already impacting its neighbours, with thousands of refugees fleeing across the border to escape the conflict.  

“If a puppet regime is installed in Ukraine, then the domino effect would be felt in Moldova,” Baltag continued. Putin would “essentially dominate the entire north coast of the Black Sea and control a vast territory” up to the borders of Romania and Moldova. 

“It is for good reason that politicians in the Moldovan capital are now watching anxiously to see how the conflict develops,” she continued. And although “Europe is now alive to the threat posed by Putin”, Ukrainians and Moldovans “have been left wondering whether this will be too late to make a difference”. 

Article source: https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/955946/is-moldova-next-on-russias-target-list