What next if Kyiv falls in Russian invasion?

Zelenskyy also claimed that Ukraine has “reached a strategic turning point”, stating: “We are already moving towards our goal, our victory. We need time, patience, our wisdom, energy, we need to do our job to the best of our abilities.”

Political assassinations

Foreign Policy first revealed that US intelligence suggested Russia was planning for a “post-invasion arrest and assassination campaign in Ukraine” should Kremlin forces mount a successful invasion. Four people familiar with the US intelligence said Russia has “drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine”.

The campaign would likely “target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists, and Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile”, the magazine said.

The US ambassador to the UN also warned in a letter to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, seen by The Washington Post, that Russia had begun creating lists of Ukrainian targets “to be killed or sent to military camps following a military occupation”.

The letter warned that “those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons” are at risk of arrest or death in the event that Russia seizes the country.

Puppet regime

According to Ukrayinska Pravda, Putin’s pick to replace Zelenskyy in the event of a successful invasion would be fugitive ex-president Viktor Yanukovych.

Yanukovych, whom the paper said is currently in Minsk, was ousted as president in 2014 following the Euromaidan protests in which 28 protesters were killed amid calls for closer integration with the EU. Yanukovych, who remains close to the Kremlin, was also accused of widespread corruption and cronyism, as well as police abuse and vote rigging.

Citing a source in Ukrainian intelligence, Ukrayinska Pravda reported that “the Kremlin is currently preparing him for a special operation” that could include “an appeal on his behalf to the Ukrainian people in the near future”.

The move would be hugely unpopular among Ukrainians, said The Economist’s defence editor Shashank Joshi.

Will Russia stop in Ukraine?

The Ukrainian president has warned that the attack on his country heralded the return of a “new iron curtain” that could once again divide Europe.

“What we have heard today are not just missile blasts, fighting and the rumble of aircraft,” said Zelenskyy in a national address. “This is the sound of a new iron curtain, which has come down and is closing Russia off from the civilised world.”

He went on: “If you don’t help us now, if you fail to offer a powerful assistance to Ukraine, tomorrow the war will knock on your door.”

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has deployed troops to Ukraine in support of Russia, also appears to have indicated that Russian forces are planning to invade Moldova following a successful takeover in Ukraine.

At a meeting of his security council on Tuesday, Lukashenko addressed officials while standing in front of a map that appeared to show a planned operation in Ukraine’s neighbour.

The map detailed Russia’s lines of attack into Ukraine, “some of which have materialised in the first few days of the invasion”, said The Telegraph. It also showed “several attacks that have yet to come to pass”, including one that pointed from the city of Odessa into Moldova.

Should Russia replace the government in Ukraine with a pro-Kremlin regime, Nato member states including Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia “will all find themselves lined up along this new frontier”, said The Telegraph. 

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has also warned that if Putin’s aggression is not stopped in Ukraine, “we are going to see others under threat – the Baltics, Poland, Moldova, and it could end up in a conflict with Nato”.

Article source: https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/955903/what-next-kyiv-falls-to-russian-invasion-ukraine