This Is How Tuesday’s Crunch Brexit Vote Will Play Out

Here’s where things get really interesting. If May has remarkably managed to whip up a majority for her deal, the UK will leave the EU under the terms negotiated by the Prime Minister and her team – including the divisive Irish border backstop. (As long as it is passed by the European Parliament and Council.)

If she hasn’t… things get a bit more complicated.

On Wednesday night, the government suffered a significant defeat in the Commons after rebel Tory MPs joined forces with Labour to push through an amendment which means May will have just three sitting days to come back to the House with a new Brexit plan, instead of the previously agreed 21.

The amendment – put forward by Tory MP Dominic Grieve in a bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit – will give MPs the chance to vote on alternative Brexit plans – including a second referendum, a ‘managed’ no-deal or a ‘Norway-plus’ option.

If a new deal is agreed by parliament, the government could go back to Brussels in an attempt to renegotiate a deal. But, given the fact that Brexit day – March 29 – is just weeks away, this would probably lead to an extension of Article 50.

Finally, if May loses the Brexit vote, Labour could trigger a no-confidence vote in the government, with Jeremy Corbyn announcing on Thursday it would trigger such a motion “at the moment we judge it to have the best chance of success”.

If MPs determine they have no confidence in the government, this in turn could trigger a general election.

Buckle in folks – it’s going to be a hell of a week.