Is Climate Change Behind 2019’s Record-Breaking Temperatures? We Asked The Experts

Question: Can we expect records to continue to be broken? 

Professor Joanna Haigh, Imperial College London:“Yes, indeed. You’ve got the average temperatures going up and you’ve got the extreme temperatures going up as well. Not year on year, because you’ve got the wonderful variability of weather, which means its colder one year and warmer the other. But the underlying trend will be more hot events and fewer cold events.” 

Dr Michael Byrne, Imperial College London: “Since industrial times, since before we started emitting greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, the world has warmed by around 1C… What this overall global warming means is that the likelihood of extreme heatwaves like we’re experiencing now in London are much more likely.

“If we take the 2018 summer in the UK as an example, it was the hottest on record with periods of really long, dry weather. The Met Office analysis of that heatwave found that it was 30 times more likely because of climate change. So in the past, before we were emitting greenhouse gases, the 2018 heatwave was maybe a one in 100 year event. Now it’s more like a one in three to four year event because of the climate change that has happened. 

“The summer of 2018 will become pretty typical in the UK by 2050, by which time the climate of London is expected to look like the climate of Barcelona today. Climate change is definitely driving what we are seeing.” 

Question: Are enough systems in place to help us deal with these extreme weather events? 

Dr Michael Byrne, Imperial College London: “What is in place and what I think works pretty well is the forecast system. The heatwave we just had over the past few days was earmarked for a good week. The short term forecast of these events has definitely improved.

“But on the flip-side, if you wind back to the hottest day ever in the UK, on that day in London it became very apparent that London specifically was not prepared for that kind of event. Train lines buckled, overhead power cables came down and the city in general just felt uncomfortable – most of the tube lines do not have air-conditioning, most homes and offices don’t either. With these kind of heatwaves becoming increasingly frequent, over the coming decades a huge amount of work needs to be done in the UK to prepare for those impacts. 

“What is not always appreciated is that increasing temperatures globally go hand in hand with heavier downpours, particularly in the UK. So there is a huge amount of work that needs to happen in the UK to prepare everyone for what is coming.” 

Professor Piers Forster, Priestly International Centre for Climate: “We have to change our homes, hospitals, cities, travel and farming to be both zero emissions and resilient to the heatwaves and flooding we know is around the corner. We need to make these investments and changes now.”