Brexit, Boris And Bad Language: After A Crazy Week Of Politics, What Is Going To Happen Next?
The prime minister was then pressed on his Brexit plans and he doubled down on Cox’s hostile approach by repeatedly referring to a new law which forces him to seek an extension to the Article 50 deadline in the face of no-deal as “the surrender bill”.
This paved the way for a new low in British politics which reopened Brexit wounds and further divided the Commons as Johnson dismissed MPs’ fears that his “dangerous” use of language was putting said their safety was being put at risk. Reminded that MPs were receiving death threats and that Labour MP Jo Cox was killed during the Brexit referendum, Johnson shrugged off their concerns as “humbug”.
What next?
The most pressing issue, obviously, is how will Brexit be handled from here. Given the deadlock on the issue, there are a number of scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks.
Is Brexit on October 31 more or less likely?
It’s the million dollar (or, perhaps, £350m) question. We are deep into political chaos, as well as uncharted territory, and there could be a lot more to come.
On the face of it, unless the PM can bring back a radically-changed Brexit deal that MPs want to vote for, it is unlikely that the UK will be leaving the EU on October 31. Logic says that given MPs have passed legislation forcing him to seek an extension if a no-deal is likely, Johnson has no choice.
The PM has said he would wrench the UK from the bloc regardless of the terms and there are things he and his de facto chief-of-staff Dominic Cummings will try to pull off a Halloween exit.
Number 10′s rather cryptic line at the moment is: “We will comply with the law but the UK is leaving the EU on October 31.”
So, what could Johnson do to circumvent the law? He might, for instance, write one letter requesting an extension and another saying he doesn’t want it.
It has also been reported Johnson could use ministerial powers to suspend the act, although Downing Street said on Friday it “doesn’t recognise” this plan.
The way ahead preferred by most MPs is for Johnson to bring back a deal they can back but trust in the PM is at an all-time low and it is difficult to see any consensus developing after this fractious week.
This leads many to think Johnson’s real game is to force a confidence vote and a general election – something which, if the PM controls the date, could see Britain fall out of the EU during the campaign period.
Separately, it is worth remembering that the EU may refuse to give Britain anymore time to sort Brexit anyway. French President Emmanuel Macron was reluctant to agree the last one and believes Europe should be dealing with other pressing matters, such as climate change.
Could Jeremy Corbyn become caretaker prime minister?
Another idea gaining traction is parliament rejecting Johnson and forming a government of national unity which would swerve no-deal and trigger an election once a Brexit extension is certain.
This would involve MPs ousting Johnson in a vote of no-confidence.
If they do this, they would have 14 days to form an alternative government with a new PM.
Johnson being removed is not a wild prospect, given the Tories lost their majority in parliament when Johnson booted 21 Tory MPs from the party for defying him over the anti-no-deal law.
Corbyn has called for MPs to back him previously. Reports emerged on Friday the SNP were prepared to join Labour MPs. A host of Tories and independents, however, will not.
Is an election happening?
Yes. It is simply a question of when and not if.
Johnson does not have a majority and both he and Corbyn want an election.
If a Brexit extension is secured, an election in either late November or early December then seems likely.
But Labour and other parties have been clear, they will not back an election while no-deal remains a threat.