European Election Results: 5 Things We’ve Learned
The growing likelihood of a no-deal Tory leader is certainly having a direct impact on Labour and its own stance on a second referendum. Just as Theresa May was hammered in her own backyard, so too were Jeremy Corbyn and Emily Thornberry. In Islington, the Lib Dems soared to first place, increasing their vote share by 20% as Labour’s fell by 19%. In Camden, home to shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer, the yellow surge was even more dramatic, up 26%.
Thornberry took just 20 minutes after the polls closed last night to push Labour’s policy much harder towards a referendum. “We were not clear on the one single thing people wanted to hear,” she told the BBC. “We should have said quite simply that any deal that comes out of this government should be put to a confirmatory referendum and that Remain should be on the ballot paper- and that Labour would campaign to Remain.” The party’s ruling NEC should meet and shift to the clearer policy, she added.
Earlier in the evening, there had been a major operation by some hardline Corbyn allies to suggest similar words from Tom Watson were part of a new ‘coup’ attempt against their leader. Len McCluskey was acting like an ineffective “Machiavelli”. But Thornberry, who has never plotted against Corbyn, showed why this was about a change of policy, not leader. More importantly, Corbyn supporters like Shami Chakrabarti have also come out stronger for a public vote recently.
Before the results, John McDonnell said the party should “bring people together and block a no deal and if that means going back to the people, so be it.” Yet it was just after midnight that Corbyn himself issued a statement signalling a significant change of direction, declaring: “this issue will have to go back to the people, whether through a general election or a public vote.” Uber-loyal Richard Burgon repeated the line on Today and Diane Abbott said: “We need to listen to our members and take a clearer line on a public vote.” McDonnell tweeted his ‘absolutely clear view’: “if, as likely GE not possible, then I support going back to the people in another referendum.”
There are still some shadow ministers, particularly in northern seats, who fear getting off the fence risks losing working class Leave voters. In Doncaster, Wigan, Rotherham, Wakefield and Bury, the Brexit party spiked as Labour plunged. But in Wales, Corbyn’s party came third behind Farage and Plaid Cymru. And in Scotland, it looks like coming fifth, a prospect that suggests it will lose its Westminster seats to the SNP. With the next party conference a long way away in September, Corbyn could convene a special conference this summer to further clarify Labour’s second referendum pledge. The real shift would come in a general election, if a referendum-remain-and-reform was put in the manifesto.